The rebuke Donald Trump suffered in the US midterm elections could push him to step up efforts to re-engage North Korea, analysts say — but Kim Jong Un has little reason to answer.
With Democrats now in control of both chambers of Congress, Trump is expected to lean more heavily on foreign policy as he seeks to build his legacy in the final two years of his term. Efforts to resolve the wars in Ukraine and Iran have yet to produce breakthroughs, and analysts in Asia believe he will turn to a region where he thinks he has room to manoeuvre.
North Korea is likely to be a central part of that effort. Trump has been eager to restart talks with Kim, whom he has called a “great guy” and said he gets along with “very well”. The two leaders met three times during Trump’s first term, but their 2019 summit in Hanoi ended without agreement after they failed to reach a deal on North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme and sanctions relief.
Seven years on, the stakes are considerably higher. North Korea has expanded its nuclear and missile arsenal, adding hypersonic glide vehicles, a growing fleet of modern warships and submarines, and improved drone capabilities. Its ties with Russia and China are the best in years, giving Kim less incentive to negotiate — and potentially increasing the pressure on Trump to offer concessions.
Asked about Trump’s plans for diplomacy with North Korea, the White House said he had “restored American strength” on the global stage and strengthened ties with world leaders. “His foreign policy decisions have never been motivated by politics,” spokeswoman Anna Kelly said. “The Commander-in-Chief will always act in the best interest of the American people and our national security.”
But US and South Korean officials see fading chances of a meeting this year. Washington received no response from Pyongyang ahead of a regional summit in China this month where the two leaders might have met. Kim’s influential sister, Kim Yo Jong, has said dialogue remains a path to peace but that Pyongyang sees no need for talks now, denouncing what she called Washington’s “hostile policy” and denying US accusations that North Korea stole more than $6 billion in virtual assets from Binance.
Kim has previously said he was open to talks if Washington stopped insisting his country give up nuclear weapons — a concession that regional allies South Korea and Japan oppose. “A summit that shelves denuclearisation would undermine deterrence and create policy friction among Washington, Seoul and Tokyo,” said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. Officials in Tokyo and Seoul are concerned they could be “cut out of the loop” if Trump deals directly with Kim, with the quiet blessing of Beijing and Moscow.
Trump has referred to North Korea as a nuclear power, a status allies in the region and the West have refused to recognise despite the dozens of nuclear warheads Pyongyang is believed to have built. “If US-North Korea talks lead Washington to accept North Korea’s nuclear status, the security environment in Asia would change dramatically,” said Professor Kazuhiro Maeshima at Sophia University in Japan. “The biggest change since World War Two could occur in the remaining two years of the Trump administration. It is a serious situation.”
Any concessions could also face hurdles at home from a Democratic-controlled Congress and Trump’s limited time in office, said Moon Chung-in, a Yonsei University professor who served as a presidential adviser on national security. “And what is important is North Korea’s perception and calculation; if North Korea thinks that Trump has entered a lame-duck period and he cannot get the support from Congress… there’s no reason for Kim Jong Un to come to dialogue,” he said. Stephen Biegun, the former US deputy secretary of state who led negotiations with North Korea during Trump’s first term, agreed there were few incentives for Pyongyang currently. “The North Koreans, I think, have very little upside to a meeting like this right now, and potentially some downside.”
Note: this article is based on a single Reuters analysis drawing on analysts and officials in Asia; no new US–North Korea meeting has been announced.
Sources: Reuters, “Trump could woo North Korea after midterm setback, but Kim may not respond” — https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-could-woo-north-korea-after-midterm-setback-kim-may-not-respond-2026-11-06/
