China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell 3.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, the biggest quarterly drop since the pandemic, according to new analysis published on Friday.
The Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), writing for the UK-based Carbon Brief, found that the world’s biggest emitter used less fossil fuel across energy and industry, with oil, coal and gas all contributing to the decline.
China cut its oil use by 4% during the quarter, the analysis found, as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz curbed energy shipments through the vital waterway. Transport oil use fell even more sharply, dropping 9% from a year earlier, as drivers increasingly relied on electric cars and taxis.
Coal use fell by 3.3%, helped by better use of wind and solar power and by mild weather that reduced demand for electricity. Growth in the coal-to-chemicals sector also slowed, after higher coal prices dampened demand for coal-based chemical products following a boom earlier in the year, when cheap coal had helped Chinese producers undercut rivals using petroleum feedstocks.
The decline extends a “flat or falling” trend in China’s emissions that began in March 2024 and has now lasted more than two years on a rolling 12-month basis, the report said. Emissions have fallen by 0.5% over the first nine months of 2026, suggesting the trend could hold for the full year.
The figures matter well beyond China. The country accounts for roughly a third of global carbon dioxide emissions, so a sustained fall would mark a turning point in the world’s efforts to slow climate change — although analysts caution that a single quarter, shaped in part by a shipping crisis and mild weather, is not yet proof of a permanent peak.
The findings are based on a single analysis, and should be read alongside official Chinese data when it is published.
Sources: Reuters, “China’s Q3 emissions post biggest drop since pandemic as Hormuz crisis curbs fossil fuel use” (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-q3-emissions-post-biggest-drop-since-pandemic-hormuz-crisis-curbs-fossil-2026-11-06/); Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air / Carbon Brief.
Note: This is a file photo of wind turbines in China, not a photo of the emissions data.
