Japanese household spending fell 6.8% in September from a year earlier, government data showed on Tuesday, more than double the 3.1% decline economists had expected and the steepest fall since September 2020.
It was the tenth consecutive month of decline, underlining how fragile the recovery in consumer demand remains even as wages rise. On a seasonally adjusted basis, spending fell 2.8% from August, against a forecast of a 0.3% increase.
An official at the internal affairs ministry blamed the weather. Rain was recorded in Tokyo on every single day of September, the first time that has happened in the capital’s records, keeping people indoors and cutting into outings, shopping and leisure spending.
The figures sit awkwardly alongside a brighter picture on pay. Real wages rose for a ninth consecutive month in September, and nominal wages grew at their fastest pace since January 1997, according to data issued last week. Households are earning more, but in September at least, they were not spending it — a gap the rain helps to explain, though it does not fully account for a tenth straight monthly fall.
The spending data will be among the indicators the Bank of Japan scrutinises as it decides whether to raise interest rates further. Many analysts expect the next increase as soon as December, after the central bank signalled that a move to 1.5% was all but locked in. A weather-driven slump is unlikely on its own to stay the bank’s hand, but a run of weak consumption would complicate the case for tightening.
For now, the September numbers say less about the underlying health of the Japanese consumer than about an exceptionally wet month. The test will come in the October data: if spending rebounds as the skies clear, the slump can be written off as weather. If it does not, the Bank of Japan will face harder questions about the strength of demand.
Sources: Reuters, “Japan September household spending slumps amid bad weather” (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-september-household-spending-slumps-amid-bad-weather-2026-11-10/). The spending figures are from Japan’s internal affairs ministry as reported by Reuters; this story is single-sourced to that report.
