President Donald Trump returns to the campaign trail on Sunday with rallies in Iowa and Kansas, two days before midterm elections that will decide control of Congress.
The two Farm Belt states are both Republican-leaning, but both Senate races have become unexpectedly competitive. Trump won Iowa by double digits in 2024, yet polls now show Democrats tied with or leading Republicans in many of the state’s races. Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, is also facing a closer contest than Republicans expected.
The stakes extend well beyond the two states. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot on Tuesday. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority and a narrow edge in the House. Losing either chamber would let Democrats block much of Trump’s agenda for his final two years in office and open investigations of an administration that has so far faced largely compliant Republican majorities.
Early voting has already set a record. More than 52 million Americans have voted in person or by mail, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, up from nearly 46 million who voted before Election Day in 2022.
Trump’s standing among rural voters, a core part of his coalition, has slipped. His approval rating among rural Americans fell to a new low of 45% in October, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling — a warning sign for a party relying on Farm Belt turnout.
The campaign’s final days are also shadowed by legal fights. The administration is pressing a criminal investigation in Alaska’s pivotal Senate race and said on Saturday it would likely take its fight over thousands of California mail ballots to the Supreme Court, after courts rejected attempts to block the state from counting ballots from more than 20,000 registered voters the Justice Department alleges are likely noncitizens. California has said its safeguards against noncitizen voting, which is illegal, are robust.
In Michigan, another closely watched Senate race, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers, while a rift with his former primary rival, Representative Haley Stevens, has spilled into public view days before polling day. El-Sayed’s campaign asked Stevens to skip his events through Election Day, and Stevens has demanded he condemn an outside group’s advertisement she says blames Israel for high grocery prices.
What happens on Tuesday will shape the last two years of Trump’s presidency — and the rallies in Iowa and Kansas are his final attempt to shore up the Senate ground his party can least afford to lose.
Sources: Reuters, “Trump heads to Iowa, Kansas for rallies before midterms” (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-heads-iowa-kansas-rallies-before-midterms-2026-11-01/) and University of Florida Election Lab early-voting figures as reported by Reuters.
