American voters are casting their ballots on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide who controls Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s second term, in the first nationwide verdict on his presidency since he returned to the White House.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, along with 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats and 36 governorships. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in each chamber to overturn Republican majorities of 218-214 in the House and 53-47 in the Senate, and forecasters and polls favour them to reclaim the House while the Senate battle remains highly competitive.
History is against the president’s party: the sitting president’s party has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since the Second World War. Mr Trump’s approval rating is hovering near its lowest levels, dragged down by voter frustration over the cost of living and the war with Iran, which has pushed up fuel prices.
The campaign has been fought largely on affordability. Opinion polls show voters are most concerned about rising prices and disapprove of Mr Trump’s handling of the issue, after his sweeping tariff policy and the decision to attack Iran in February increased domestic costs. Republican candidates have struggled to distance themselves from a president who demands loyalty and rarely acknowledges mistakes, while Mr Trump has told supporters repeatedly to “pretend I’m on the ballot”.
The Senate fight is likely to hinge on a handful of races, most of them in Republican strongholds. Democrats must defend all of their current seats, including a tight contest in Michigan, while winning at least two states that voted for Mr Trump by double-digit margins in 2024, among them Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. Polls show Democrats narrowly leading or within striking distance in all of them.
In Michigan, the contest between progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former congressman Mike Rogers received a fresh jolt on Sunday when Democrat Haley Stevens, who narrowly lost to Mr El-Sayed in the primary, endorsed Mr Rogers in a surprise reversal. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton held a narrow polling lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall, despite Mr Trump having carried the state by more than 16 points in 2024.
Election officials have warned that close races could spark disputes over voter eligibility, ballot counting and certification. Mr Trump’s Justice Department plans to deploy about 1,000 monitors nationwide on Election Day, roughly triple the number used in the last midterms, a move some local officials fear could intimidate voters, although the department says those fears are baseless. Several states are also unlikely to produce complete results on election night, providing fertile ground for disputes.
A Democratic House or Senate could launch investigations into the Trump administration and demand concessions to approve legislation, while a Democratic Senate could block presidential appointments, including to the Supreme Court if vacancies arise. A stronger-than-expected Republican showing, by contrast, could reinforce Mr Trump’s grip on his party.
Sources: Reuters, “Trump faces midterm verdict with control of Congress at stake”, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-faces-midterm-verdict-with-control-congress-stake-2026-11-03/ ; Reuters, “Six things to watch as US voters decide control of Congress”, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/six-things-watch-us-voters-decide-control-congress-2026-11-02/
