New Zealand’s ruling National Party and the centre-left Labour opposition are effectively neck and neck days before Saturday’s general election, according to the final 1News Verian poll released on Tuesday.
The poll puts the conservative National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, on 30%, up one point, narrowly ahead of Labour, led by former prime minister Chris Hipkins, on 29%, up two points. The gap is within any normal margin of polling error, and neither side looks close to governing alone.
The Greens rose one point to 16%, while National’s current coalition partners both slipped: ACT fell two points to 10% and New Zealand First fell two points to 8%. The centrist Opportunity Party was unchanged on 6%, and Te Pati Maori was recorded at 0.4%.
Those numbers point to a parliament in which neither the right nor the left bloc can command a majority on its own. A National, ACT and New Zealand First combination would need support from Opportunity, and so would a Labour, Green and Te Pati Maori combination, making the small centrist party a potential kingmaker in post-election negotiations.
New Zealand elects its 120-member House of Representatives under a mixed-member proportional system, under which party votes largely determine each party’s share of seats. The system has made coalition government the norm since it was introduced in the 1990s, and close elections have often been followed by days or weeks of bargaining.
The result will be a verdict on Luxon’s centre-right coalition, in power since the 2023 election, after a term marked by a weakening economy and higher unemployment. Labour, which lost power in 2023 after the departure of Jacinda Ardern, has sought to present itself as the alternative on living costs and public services, while National has campaigned on continuity and economic repair.
Early voting has already been under way, and the final poll will do little to settle nerves in either camp. With the two major parties separated by a single point and a small party potentially decisive, Saturday’s vote looks set to be decided by turnout and by how late-deciding voters break in the final days.
Sources: Reuters, “New Zealand’s National and Labour in dead heat days before election, poll shows”, 3 November 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/new-zealands-national-labour-dead-heat-days-before-election-poll-shows-2026-11-03/
