Southeast Asia’s leaders face a divisive choice over Myanmar when they meet in Manila next week, as a growing number of member states warm to the country’s military-backed rulers despite a civil war that has killed more than 100,000 people.
Leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are set to review their decision to exclude Myanmar’s political leadership from high-level meetings when they gather from 15 to 17 November. Myanmar has been barred from summits and foreign ministers’ meetings since the 2021 coup, when then-military chief Min Aung Hlaing ousted the elected government, over its failure to implement the Five-Point Consensus, a peace plan agreed after the coup.
But nearly half of the bloc’s 11 members have stepped up bilateral engagement since elections in December and January, won overwhelmingly by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party in the absence of any viable opposition. Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia have this year welcomed Min Aung Hlaing on official visits, and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim pledged in October to work towards Myanmar’s reintegration into the bloc.
Thailand is now openly calling for the restrictions to be eased. “For Thailand, we believe that the next step is to have the Foreign Minister of Myanmar participate in the ASEAN meetings at the level of Foreign Minister,” Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow told reporters after visiting Myanmar on Thursday. He said he hoped sufficient progress would allow a decision on Myanmar’s participation by Thailand’s chairmanship in 2028 at the latest.
Analysts say the shifting approaches put pressure on the Five-Point Consensus, which calls for an end to violence, inclusive dialogue, humanitarian assistance and mediation by an envoy able to meet all parties. Leaders will issue a negotiated document reviewing its implementation at the summit, a spokesperson for the Philippines said on Friday.
“I think the Five-Point Consensus now has been overtaken by events,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. Implementation has made little headway: the civil war continues, millions remain displaced, and efforts to bring the warring parties into dialogue have yet to produce a breakthrough.
Aung San Suu Kyi, the country’s civilian leader and a Nobel Peace Prize winner, has been detained since the coup. She was moved to house arrest in April, following the military-engineered election, but no foreign leader or envoy has been able to meet her despite requests.
Thailand has repeatedly offered to facilitate talks between Myanmar’s government and ethnic armed groups along its border. Sihasak said Myanmar had agreed in principle to send a delegation to any talks, but gave no date.
Human Rights Watch has urged ASEAN to maintain the restrictions and increase pressure on the military to end abuses and pursue a transition to civilian rule. But Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said warmer bilateral ties did not automatically change ASEAN policy, since the consensus remains unless members collectively agree otherwise. “ASEAN can be pragmatic without being premature,” he said. “Political acceptance should follow progress, not precede it.”
Sources: Reuters, “ASEAN faces Myanmar dilemma as some members pursue closer ties” (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/asean-faces-myanmar-dilemma-some-members-pursue-closer-ties-2026-11-13/)
