Major currencies were in a holding pattern on Monday as investors turned their attention to this week’s United States midterm elections, a vote that could shift the balance of power in Congress and control over the federal purse strings.
Americans head to the polls on Tuesday to decide whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress from President Donald Trump’s Republican Party. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House of Representatives, but the Senate is more in doubt, leaving traders reluctant to take large positions before the result is known.
The election is only the first item in a packed week for markets. October US jobs data are due, alongside central bank rate decisions in Britain, Australia, Norway and Sweden, giving investors several reasons to wait rather than trade aggressively.
Ahead of those events, the euro languished near a 17-month low at $1.1159 in early Asian trade, weighed down by Fitch’s decision to revise France’s outlook to negative from stable after Friday’s close. Sterling was little changed at $1.3387, while the dollar steadied at 101.94 against a basket of currencies.
The yen eased 0.15% to 157.78 per dollar. The Australian dollar was flat at $0.7033 ahead of Tuesday’s policy decision, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its cash rate to a near two-decade high of 4.85%. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.11% to $0.5625, having slid 1.2% last week after its central bank surprised markets by leaving rates unchanged.
Analysts warned that markets may have limited room to absorb a surprise. Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered, said polling pointed to strong anti-incumbent sentiment, but that did not always translate into election outcomes, as seen in Brazil and Israel. He added that a Democratic sweep of Congress could complicate capital spending plans for data centres and artificial intelligence infrastructure at state level, and make the next debate over raising the US debt ceiling among the most contentious in recent history.
Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, said hedge funds had suffered significant losses in October, leaving markets with little capacity to absorb surprises from the midterm elections.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ether were nursing losses after last week’s record $6.3 billion heist at Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange. Bitcoin was up 0.22% at $77,975.62, having fallen to a six-week low on Friday. Ether was up 0.27% to $2,268.42, having similarly slid to a two-month trough last week.
Binance customers pulled $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of its assets, as the exchange went back online on Sunday after hackers the FBI links to North Korea stole billions from the platform last week. Binance said withdrawals were stabilising after an initial spike and deposit volumes had remained substantial, and that it had now covered 95% of the $6.3 billion of stolen assets.
Richard Forss, chief technology officer at global prime broker EXANTE, said the episode exposed a basic weakness in digital finance: the industry had spent a decade making blockchains mathematically secure, yet still ran on the assumption that an employee’s laptop could be trusted.
Sources: Reuters, “Dollar rangebound ahead of US midterms; bitcoin reels from crypto heist”, 2 November 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-rangebound-ahead-us-midterms-bitcoin-reels-crypto-heist-2026-11-02/
