Democrats head into Tuesday’s midterm elections ahead in all seven of the Senate battleground races surveyed in the final round of New York Times/Siena University polling, raising the prospect of a fight for control of the chamber that pollsters say remains far from settled.
The surveys, conducted among likely voters between 23 October and 1 November and released on Sunday, show Democratic candidates leading in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa. Only two of those leads — in Michigan and Texas — fall outside the polls’ margins of error, leaving the other five races statistically tied or close enough that either party could still win.
Michigan produced the largest Democratic advantage. Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 53 per cent to 42 per cent among likely voters. The poll was conducted before El-Sayed’s former primary rival, Representative Haley Stevens, endorsed Rogers on Sunday, a move Democratic leaders condemned and that could yet tighten the race.
In Texas, where no Democrat has won a Senate race since 1988, state representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 50 per cent to 43 per cent. In Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 49 per cent to 44 per cent.
Elsewhere, Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine by 51 per cent to 45 per cent, and former Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted in Ohio by 49 per cent to 44 per cent, in the special election for the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. In Alaska, former Representative Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 48 per cent to 46 per cent, while in Iowa, state representative Josh Turek edges Republican Representative Ashley Hinson by 48 per cent to 47 per cent.
Republicans currently hold the Senate by 53 seats to 47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said a Democratic majority was “a distinct possibility” but cautioned that, with so many races within the margin of error, a majority for either party remains possible.
The polls also point to a difficult backdrop for the president. Just 38 per cent of likely voters across the seven states approve of Donald Trump’s job performance, and his national approval rating of 36 per cent is the lowest for any president heading into a midterm election in 80 years, according to the Times’ poll tracker. Fewer than three in 10 likely voters support his handling of the cost of living, and Democrats hold a nine-point advantage on which party voters trust more on that issue.
Trump is due to deliver his closing midterm message at the Reflecting Pool in Washington on Monday afternoon, capping a final weekend of campaigning in states where Republicans face competitive challengers. All 435 House seats are also on the ballot, with Republicans defending a slim 218-214 majority.
Sources: USA TODAY, “Election live updates: Trump to make final midterm pitch at Reflecting Pool”, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/11/02/midterm-elections-news-updates-polls–live/92387083007/ ; Fox News, “Poll flashes warning signs for Republicans in 7 battleground Senate races”, https://foxnews.com/politics/poll-flashes-warning-signs-republicans-7-battleground-senate-races ; Siena Research Institute, New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters, https://sri.siena.edu/2026/11/01/nytimes-siena-poll-of-likely-voters-alaska-iowa-kansas-maine-michigan-ohio-and-texas/
