Spain’s conservative People’s Party (PP) would beat Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists in the general election on 29 November, but would need the support of the right-wing Vox to secure a parliamentary majority, according to the latest round of opinion polls.
A SocioMetrica survey published by El Español projected around 200 seats in the 350-seat lower house for the PP and Vox combined, with the Socialists taking 108 seats, two more than in the previous survey. The poll, based on 5,460 online interviews with a margin of error of three percentage points, showed a net transfer of 832,000 voters from the left to the right.
A survey by 40dB for El País told a similar story, putting the combined right on around 190 seats, enough for a working majority. It showed the gap between the PP and the Socialists narrowing to two percentage points, with the Socialists advancing 1.8 points to 29.9% of voting intentions. The survey of 2,000 online respondents carried a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
A Sigma Dos poll published by El Mundo pointed to the Socialists recovering some of the ground they lost after last month’s deadly train crash, and now likely to win 105 seats — but still far behind the 199 seats projected for the PP and Vox together. That survey of 4,172 respondents had a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points.
An IMOP poll for El Confidencial, which focused on vote transfers rather than seat projections, pointed to falling voter loyalty for the Socialists and rising support for the PP, largely at the expense of Vox supporters.
The formal campaign starts in four days and is expected to be dominated by housing, immigration and corruption, along with the reverberations of last month’s deadly train crash at Urda, which killed 69 people and triggered the resignation of Transport Minister Óscar Puente.
Sánchez’s chances of staying in power at the head of a left-wing coalition have also been reduced by the failure of Spain’s hard-left parties to agree on a common list of candidates last month. The polls put the Broad Front on course for 10 to 15 seats, with its rival Podemos at risk of losing its parliamentary representation altogether.
The PP leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has said forming a coalition government with Vox “doesn’t depend on me”, and has ruled out asking the Socialists to abstain so he can govern without the far right. A polling average compiled by Demócrata on 9 November put the PP on 31.5%, the Socialists on 26.7%, Vox on 19.1% and the Broad Front on 6.5%.
Polls are snapshots, not predictions, and the figures vary by pollster. But every survey published so far points the same way: the right is ahead, the left is divided, and the next government is likely to depend on a deal between Feijóo and Vox.
Note: the polling figures in this article rest on Reuters’ roundup of the four surveys, and the seat projections differ between pollsters, so they should be read as estimates rather than a settled outcome.
Sources: Reuters, “Spain’s right well ahead in polls for November 29 election” (https://www.reuters.com/world/spains-right-well-ahead-polls-november-29-election-2026-11-09/); Demócrata poll tracker (https://www.democrata.es/en/politics/feijoo-considers-puente-s-resignation-indispensable-but-still-insufficient-and-points-to-sanchez-as-the-top-responsible-party/).
