President Donald Trump has threatened to double tariffs on Mexico unless its government stops a caravan of about 1,500 migrants walking north towards the United States, warning that the group “will not be accepted”.
In a post on social media on Thursday, Trump said Mexico must halt the caravan immediately or face a sharp escalation in trade duties. “MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED,” he wrote. “There will be no leniency!”
The group, estimated at about 1,500 people mostly from Central America, set off on Tuesday from Tapachula, a city in the southern state of Chiapas near Mexico’s border with Guatemala. According to Reuters, many in the group said they hoped the Democrats’ victory in last week’s US midterm elections could open new pathways for them to live and work in the United States.
Trump did not say which tariffs he meant, what the new rates would be, or when any increase would take effect, and no formal order imposing higher duties has been issued. The threat, as it stands, is a warning rather than a change in the law.
Mexico already faces substantial US tariffs. Goods that do not qualify for preferential treatment under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) face a 25 per cent duty, alongside 25 per cent tariffs on Mexican-made cars, 50 per cent on steel and aluminium, and a 17 per cent duty on tomatoes. Doubling those rates would sharply raise costs for exporters on both sides of the border and for American buyers of Mexican goods.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum pushed back at her daily news conference on Thursday, saying no migrant caravan has reached Mexico’s northern border since Trump returned to office in January 2025. She said two caravans are currently moving through southern Mexico and that the authorities are managing them, adding that one group of about 600 people had largely dispersed after being told how hard it would be to enter the United States.
The dispute comes as the United States, Mexico and Canada review the USMCA, with Mexico seeking reductions in the tariffs imposed on its goods. Trump has used tariffs as leverage over migration before: in 2019 he threatened a 5 per cent duty on all Mexican goods, rising to 25 per cent, before a deal was reached.
Whether the White House follows through this time will depend on whether the caravan keeps moving north — and on whether Mexico is seen to be doing enough to stop it.
Sources: Reuters — “Trump threatens to double tariffs on Mexico if it does not halt migrants” (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-threatens-double-tariffs-mexico-if-it-does-not-halt-migrants-2026-11-12/); FreightWaves — “Trump threatens to double Mexico tariffs over alleged migrant influx” (https://www.freightwaves.com/news/trump-threatens-to-double-mexico-tariffs-over-alleged-migrant-influx).
