France Football, the organiser of the Ballon d’Or, has opened an investigation and contacted police after a cluster of bets correctly predicted the exact top-five order of this year’s award, days after Harry Kane was named the winner.
Kane, the Bayern Munich and England striker, collected the men’s award at the London Palladium on 26 October, becoming the first Englishman to win it since Michael Owen in 2001. He finished with 1,055 points, just 28 ahead of Kylian Mbappé, with Lamine Yamal third, Rodri fourth and Lionel Messi fifth.
According to an investigation by French outlet Upside, first reported in English by The Guardian, 12 accounts on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, wagered more than $264,000 on the outcome before the ceremony and made close to $200,000 in profit. The accounts backed the precise finishing order rather than simply picking a winner, and all five positions matched the official result.
The pattern of the accounts has drawn particular attention. Upside found they were all created between 1 and 20 October, seven had never placed a bet on any other market, and six placed their first wager within 15 minutes of registering. One account bought a contract on a Kane win at 37 cents, sold at 67 cents, and then moved funds into bets on specific placings, including Yamal finishing third.
Upside’s co-founder Raphaël Pautard said his team traced one transaction to a French platform, which reportedly identified the individual behind one of the funding accounts. That person has not been named, and no financial link between all of the accounts has been established.
France Football has stressed how few people know the result in advance, which is why the precision of the bets has raised questions about whether confidential voting information leaked before the ceremony. However, no leak has been proven, and a successful prediction alone does not prove that the vote was manipulated or the rankings altered.
The investigation is separate from the closeness of the vote itself. France Football editor-in-chief Vincent Garcia has explained that Mbappé had led the rankings a few weeks before the decision, and Kane’s case rested on 73 goals for club and country last season, a second successive Bundesliga title and six goals at the World Cup as England finished third.
Sources: The Guardian, as reported by GiveMeSport, “Ballon d’Or Organisers Launch Investigation and Contact Police After Harry Kane’s Win” (31 October 2026), https://www.givemesport.com/ballon-dor-investigation-contact-police-harry-kane-win/ ; talkSPORT, “Police called over suspicious Ballon d’Or bets after Harry Kane triumph as investigation launched” (31 October 2026), https://talksport.com/football/4679578/police-ballon-dor-investigation-harry-kane-kylian-mbappe/ ; Upside investigation into Polymarket Ballon d’Or betting, as reported by both outlets. Note on sourcing: the betting findings rest on Upside’s investigation as reported by The Guardian and others; no leak has been independently confirmed, and the claims about the accounts are as reported.
