China may be conducting a major, unannounced military exercise simulating the isolation of Taiwan, according to an assessment published on 6 November by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the American Enterprise Institute. The deployment — more than 100 Chinese navy and coast guard vessels spread across the western Pacific — is larger than Beijing’s most recent named exercise around the island, Justice Mission 2025, and involves two of China’s three aircraft carriers.
The figures come from Taipei. Taiwan’s National Security Council secretary-general, Joseph Wu, reported on 3 November that over 100 People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and China Coast Guard vessels were operating in the western Pacific. His data showed two main concentrations: four task forces drawn from three different PLA theatre commands, operating between Taiwan and Guam and including the Liaoning carrier strike group, and a second group of at least six coast guard vessels and an unspecified number of navy ships around Taiwan itself. Taiwan’s defence ministry counted 49 Chinese military aircraft sorties around the island on 2 November — the highest daily total this year — including 36 south of Taiwan. Satellite imagery on 2 November also showed China’s newest carrier, the Fujian, leaving its base at Sanya on Hainan and heading east, possibly towards southern Taiwan.
What sets the activity apart, the analysts say, is what Beijing has not done. China normally announces and names major exercises aimed at Taiwan, and has done so for the last four. This time it has said nothing, despite a deployment spanning the Eastern, Northern and Southern theatre commands — a level of coordination the ISW describes as rare. The positioning follows patterns from earlier exercises, including Strait Thunder 2025a, which combined an inner encirclement of Taiwan with a carrier group operating between Taiwan and Guam.
The assessment is that Beijing may be trying to demonstrate it can cut Taiwan off from air and sea at will, and to erode confidence in Taipei — and in Washington’s willingness to come to the island’s aid. It may also be rehearsing a rapid shift from a peacetime posture to combat operations, giving adversaries less warning of a blockade or invasion. But the exercise itself is assessed, not confirmed — and that distinction matters. Beijing has described the Liaoning’s activity as routine training not directed at any specific country, and no blockade has been declared. Taiwan’s reading of the activity as blockade rehearsal is likewise an assessment, not an established fact.
The build-up follows months of rising Chinese activity east of Taiwan. Coast guard patrols there have intensified since June, and on 28 October Wu published a map showing 53 Chinese vessels across regional waters, which a senior Taiwanese official called an “obvious” threat. It also comes as Taiwan prepares for local elections on 28 November, with authorities investigating suspected foreign interference, and ahead of the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18–19 November, where China’s Xi Jinping is expected to meet US President Donald Trump.
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, “China & Taiwan Update, November 6, 2026” (https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-update-november-6-2026/); Reuters, “Taiwan flags ‘obvious’ threat from 50 Chinese vessels in wide sweep of waters”, 29 October 2026; Taipei Times, “PLA may be simulating Taiwan isolation: report”, 7 November 2026.
