Ghana is bracing for a hotter, drier and dustier dry season as a very strong El Niño event in the Pacific continues to strengthen, the country’s Meteorological Agency has warned.
The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) said the phenomenon, which was confirmed in June 2026, is likely to influence weather across the country into the first half of 2027. Drawing on projections from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, the agency put the chance of the event reaching very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027 at about 96 per cent, with a peak expected between October 2026 and January 2027 before it gradually weakens.
For October to December 2026, GMet expects warmer-than-average temperatures across most of Ghana and below-normal rainfall in many areas. Some places are exceptions: above-normal rain is still expected in inland parts of Greater Accra and the Central Region, the south-west of the Volta and Eastern regions, parts of Bono and Savannah, and the north-west of the Upper West Region.
The dry season itself, running from late November 2026 to March 2027, is expected to bring a higher risk of bushfires, water shortages and stress on crops and livestock, alongside increased dust. The agency warned that hot, dry and dusty conditions could also raise the seasonal risk of meningitis, particularly in northern Ghana, and urged residents there to limit dust exposure and seek medical attention for fever, severe headache or a stiff neck.
Heat stress is projected to be at its worst between February and April 2027, especially in the north, a period that is already the hottest stretch of the year in that part of the country. Farmers have been advised to check weather updates before planting, consider drought-tolerant crop varieties and avoid bush burning.
The warning is not a forecast of uniform drought. GMet cautioned that short, intense downpours and localised flooding remain possible in southern areas and along the Volta River, and urged the public to follow advisories from the National Disaster Management Organisation and the Volta River Authority. It has also called for a national El Niño and dry-season preparedness task force to coordinate ministries, local government and state authorities.
GMet pointed to earlier very strong El Niño episodes in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, and the moderate event in 2023/24, as a reminder of how vulnerable the country is to shifts in rainfall. Its projections are climate risk assessments rather than guarantees, and the onset and performance of the 2027 rainy seasons remain uncertain and under monitoring.
Sources: Ghana Meteorological Agency advisory, as reported by Winneba News, 1 November 2026 (https://winnebanews.com/2026/11/01/gmet-warns-of-hotter-drier-and-dustier-conditions-as-strong-el-nino-develops/) and Chale News, 31 October 2026 (https://chale.news/gmet-warns-of-hotter-drier-dry-season-as-el-nino-strengthens/).
