OPEC+ oil producers have agreed in principle to leave their December production targets unchanged, according to people familiar with the discussions, in a sign that the alliance sees no need for a further policy shift before the end of the year.
Seven core members of the group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — are due to meet online on Sunday. Three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters that the producers had reached an understanding in principle to hold December targets steady, although no final decision has yet been taken.
The expected pause fits a pattern that has held through the final quarter of the year. After months of gradually raising output allowances, the group completed in September the phased reversal of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. Since then, attention inside the alliance has moved away from month-by-month adjustments and towards the larger question of how production will be shared out in 2027.
That question is not straightforward. A separate layer of cuts, covering most members and amounting to about two million barrels a day, remains in place through the end of 2026. Before the group can set new baselines for 2027 — the reference levels that determine each country’s future quota and shape any unwinding of those remaining cuts — it must first complete a review of members’ production capacity during the fourth quarter.
The backdrop to Sunday’s meeting is a market still shaped by war in the Middle East. Gulf producers have been rebuilding exports that were disrupted for months by the conflict involving Iran, but most are still producing well below their official targets. With Brent crude trading above $110 a barrel, the group faces a market that is tight in price terms even as its own output lags the levels it has set on paper.
Holding December targets steady would therefore be less a decision to tighten or loosen supply than a decision to wait. The producers appear to be keeping their powder dry until the capacity review is done and the 2027 framework is clearer, rather than making a change that could soon be overtaken by a broader renegotiation of quotas.
It is important to be clear about the status of this report: the agreement in principle rests on unnamed sources speaking to Reuters, and the producers themselves have not yet announced a decision. Sunday’s meeting could still produce a different outcome, and any formal statement from the group will supersede these early indications.
Sources: Reuters, “OPEC+ set to keep production targets unchanged in December, source says” (31 October 2026), https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-keep-production-targets-unchanged-december-source-says-2026-10-31/ ; SRN News republication of the Reuters report, “OPEC+ agrees in principle to keep oil output targets steady in December, sources say” (31 October 2026), https://srnnews.com/opec-set-to-keep-production-targets-unchanged-in-december-source-says/
